Any Truth to Podcasting Renaissance?

By Rob Greenlee

It seems like podcasting or on-demand audio is in the middle of a burst of media and entrepreneurial interest.  This increased interest in podcasting is occurring because of a convergence of events that have been building for a few years now.

Many newer people to the podcasting community, listeners and media all sense sudden fast track growth and profitability.  This recent perception has been fueled by many major articles on large media sites like Washington Post and Fast Company.  These articles often reference the “Serial” podcast and exuded the renewed birth of podcasting and its profitability stemming from the growth and success of podcast networks.  Big podcast shows are getting plenty of advertisers and making lots of money, but smaller shows are still struggling to make solid revenue. Revenue to smaller podcast shows is coming as the overall audience for podcasts or on demand audio grows.

“I hate to pop the bubble here, but podcasting has been on a steady rise in usage, content, content quality and ease of distribution for many years now.  Successful and profitable podcast programs and networks have been around for many years.” 

What we have been seeing is just a steady increase in all areas around podcasting and on-demand audio as the 10 year old medium matures.  We did not get here overnight and the media interest and content we are seeing talked about now has been around for many years.  The Adam Carolla Podcast started in 2009 and many of the popular public radio programs started 4 or 5 years ago now as well.

It is easy to be a little cynical about the hype and media coverage of today as we have seen it all before, many times.  Even going back to 2004 and 2005, when “Wired” magazine ran a front page cover story proclaiming how podcasting was going to “Kill Radio” and showed a bullet crashing through a table top radio receiver.  Like I have said, we have been here and seen this all before.  The difference is that back then podcasting was a bunch of smoke and mirrors.  It was an upstart medium that no one really understood. Much of that has changed now and we are finally starting to see the broadcast radio industry start to recognize that on-demand audio may actually be the threat that they did not concern themselves with back in 2005.

The suggested renaissance of podcasting is being driven by an explosion of new quality podcast content from every potential source you can imagine.  Comedy podcasts are booming as well as every other genre of content, from religious podcasts to shows from reality stars like Snooki and Brandi Glanville.  Former Pro Wrestlers are also building a strong new genre in the sports category.  YouTube stars are starting to build successful audio podcasts with the launch of the Tyler Oakly’s “Psycho Babble” podcast.

We have also been seeing a steady shift of nationally syndicated talk radio talkers moving to becoming more cross-media brands with TV shows and podcasts. This recognition of the big broadcast radio networks and stations is a huge trend coming for 2015 and beyond.

Podcasting conference events like The New Media Expo (NMX) in Las Vegas next April 13-15, which is going to be co-presented with the huge National Association of Broadcasters annual conference, Podcast Movement in Texas and the recent Los Angeles Podcast Festival that focused on live comedy podcast shows.  LA PodFest was a show fan event with educational podcasting sessions.

“Podcasting or on-demand audio is growing fast since the hype of YouTube video and Social Media has subsided somewhat and smartphones have exploded in adoption.  This is the opening for a renaissance of spoken-word audio as the medium shifts to become an on-demand medium like video and music has become.  It has just taken spoken-word audio and podcasting a little bit longer to develop than broadcast radio.”

The future is bright again for audio with the coming smart car dashboards and head units.  Apple is rolling out “CarPlay” and Google’s Android operating system is getting installed more and more into cars of the future.  This means that the growth of spoken-word audio apps on your phone and installed into your car smart dashboards will bring a new audio experience to our cars via our smartphones or directly to the car dash via very fast data plans.

Look for podcasting and on-demand spoken-word audio to continue its march up the mountain called “Renaissance”.

Originally distributed in Podertainment Magazine.

Coming Contextualized Podcast Listening

By Rob Greenlee

Many have said, over the past 10 years that podcasts were just too difficult to find and know how to listen to them.  I would agree that was the past and that past perceptions like this create a delay in the realization that something new is about to be born that will revolutionize the podcasting or on-demand spoken-word audio market we know today.

“I believe that 2015 and 2016, will bring the most profound improvements to on-demand spoken-word podcast market since iTunes added a podcasts area.”

This next year or so will show us a synergy of some very important areas that in combination will be explosive to the podcasts market.

The opportunity areas are smartphone personal agent technology that we have been seeing slowly develop like Siri, Cortana and Google’s agent technology this is currently nameless.  The other areas of important improvement are around in-car dash listening and most importantly the focus on content and the businesses that support at a very high level.

This smart agent technology is deriving out of what is called “machine learning” and is a growing focus in the tech sector that is driving the convergence of inputs from mobile device sensors, location beacons, artificial intelligence and big database stores of personal data. These technology evolutions are driving a more contextualized experience on all of our mobile devices.

You are asking at this point, “What is contextualized mobile experiences and how is this going to impact my podcast listening?” 

The answer is fairly simple and when you hear it, that light bulb in your brain will go on and you will say that makes sense.

The answer is that our mobile devices will become more and more aware of what you are doing, where you are and what you like to do and when you like to do it.  Then based on all the sensor and personal data these smart agents have access to about you, then they will start to predict and suggest what, when and how we will live our daily lives.

In many ways we are already living this contextual world, but the difference is the predictive nature of the next generation of 8 processor cores and then 12 and 16 core mobile devices that are coming in the next few years.  I believe that we will see cloud connected devices with huge processor power that are connected to huge server farms being built by Google, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook.  These server farms and future devices will know you like you have never known yourself.

To give a little perspective and real world example of this trend, the recent Apple purchase of mobile app podcast playback platform called Swell had as much to do with machine learning and context as podcasting.  Swell was laser focused on obtaining data signals from app usage, social media and device location to help personalize the audio playback experience.

This contextual future in combination with the growing embrace of the broadcast radio side and the increasing quality and variety of content is setting the stage for a huge growth pattern for podcasting and on-demand audio.  We have the pending battle between generations of spoken-word audio listeners who mostly span local and national content. We are seeing a significant trend around in-car streaming audio versus broadcast radio listening.

“I believe that car in-dash streaming audio playback is going to be a major inflection point for podcasts with the coming deployment of Apple’s “CarPlay” with 3G and 4G internet connected app experience that will be driven by mobile device and direct to the car wireless data plans.”

Young people today don’t listen to much radio and mostly digital music platforms, but older people tend to listen to more spoken-word radio and on-demand podcasts. The good thing about the younger generation is that they become older and that will help drive the future in-car streaming audio platforms that will increasingly be connected with our devices smart contextual driven user agents like Siri and Cortana.

This means that your mobile device, car, home and office will be places that your device knows the spoken-word podcast content you like and delivers content listening and advertising suggestions that are relevant to your calendar, location, activity and most of all interests that have all been obtained though the world around you and the personal data you have put into your cloud enabled devices. This may or may not be a good development, but it will make listening to spoken-word podcast content much easier then today.

Originally distributed in Podertainment Magazine.

Podcast Content vs. Distribution: Is the battle just beginning?

By Rob Greenlee

Content and distribution have had a long-running relationship with each other over many decades, going back to the earliest days of print, TV and radio. Yet, this relationship has been growing more and more unstable since the beginning of the digital age. Think Napster, as the internet has taken over more and more of the distribution of content that can go directly from the creator to its audience.

The growth of the internet has meant that in general traditional aggregator distribution middlemen are, more and more, getting cut out of making shares of revenue from content that can cover costs associated with creating and maintaining distributing pathways for getting content to audiences. This audience pathway has often been expensive to create and operate. Think newspapers, radio, and television in an analog content delivery world.

Fast forward to 2004, the iPod was dominating portable audio and thus sparked the birth of a little on-demand radio medium called Podcasting that we thought of as the utopia of unbridled and open content creation and distribution. We all thought that this symbiotic relationship between podcasting content and distribution at places like iTunes would continue forever. Well, folks, those days may be coming to an end in the new age of podcast content monetization we are seeing develop today.

I believe that we are seeing the beginnings of a battle starting to happen between creators of high quality podcast content and on-demand audio distribution platforms.

This is happening now because the content in this relatively new medium is finally able to be monetized effectively.

Yes, it is a new day for podcasting and it only took 10 years of struggle for the medium to be taken seriously by the radio and advertising buying markets to get here. The old saying comes to mind: be careful what you wish for as many in the podcasting industry have wanted effective monetization of the medium for a long time now. The battle between content and distribution has arrived and so have a few other things that we all should have known were coming.

It is well known that many more podcasts these days are making serious money.

With that come new people and platforms that want to jump in on the opportunity. The other trend that is happening is increased attention and larger audiences are coming to the podcast medium. It has long been the dream of many early entrepreneurs to seek angel and venture capital to build on-demand radio / podcasting platforms on the promise of obtaining large user bases that would potentially lead to revenue in the future.

The brewing battle is centered on who has the contractual rights to sell advertising in the podcasting content and who has the rights to distribute the said podcast content.

The dirty little secret in the podcasting space is that some of the newer open aggregator distribution platforms are running advertising in front of podcasting content without always sharing revenue and or giving play count credit to the true owners of the podcast content.

The fallout from this battle is going to shape the future of on-demand audio and podcasting. The key issue is that podcast aggregator platforms that do not own or represent the advertising sales and license podcast content will have a difficult time surviving in this new on-demand radio/audio market. It is hard to see how these open content aggregator distribution platforms will make enough revenue to justify the continued investment in software infrastructure, let alone bring a strong return to investors.

These platforms will struggle to support operations without some source of revenue besides venture capital and ad revenue coming from running ads against content that they have not paid for rights or share advertising revenue. They will face legal challenges from the true rights holders that will put them in legal and financial troubles. We will see new aggregator app platforms struggle to find a foothold as the best content will not be available on those platforms.

I believe that serious content creators and content distribution platforms need to operate in ways that are more cooperative with each other.

The only alternative is that content owners will take more control and own the distribution and audience relationships.

It is very possible that open aggregator platforms may be in the process of fading from the on-demand and podcasting market.

Podcast content networks will create distribution platforms for reaching directly to audiences. In the future, larger content networks will be the ones to do the needed content distribution rights and revenue sharing deals.

Originally distributed in Podertainment Magazine and watch videos about the eMagazine here.

How On-Demand Audio will Make Money in the Future

Since the early days of podcasting, many have wished for and aspired to make a good living from producing and distributing podcasts. Many a podcaster has failed to achieve that goal and has hung up the towel on trying to earn a good living or build a small company around the fun and exciting podcasting space. I have seen many people and companies come and go since before podcasting really even started. Expectations for the scale and advertiser support just did not match reality. Podcasting certainly did not “Kill the Radio Star” like Wired Magazine proclaimed on its cover back in 2005.

The podcasting/on-demand audio industry will make hundreds of millions or even one day billions in revenue once advertisers and distribution platforms have a consistent third-party standard for understanding and reporting download’s, play duration, specific playback devices and geo-targeting abilities to do what is called in radio “copy splitting”. These are the elements that drove broadcast radio to the 16 billion dollar industry it still is today. This usage and audience measurement metric data needs to be verified by detailed user studies by trusted research firms like Arbitron and Nielsen Research, as the large media buying agencies still operate on those principles.

The specific parts of the industry positioned to generate the most revenue and profit the most are generally the same as now: content providers and networks providing high quality content with top talent with a strong existing audience following offline and online. We are also seeing a few top publishing, hosting and metrics tools providers that are trusted by content providers and advertisers getting solid and growing revenue streams. I think that those that can create a content network with talented hosts, who can build authentic audience trust, deep “friendship level” engagement and entertain, will make hundreds of millions of dollars from major Fortune 500 brand advertisers and sponsors. Many major brand advertisers are beginning to give on-demand audio podcasting a shot, as a radio advertising replacement strategy.

Monetization will happen from a variety of revenue streams, as outlined above, but mostly it will be the larger major content provider networks and shows will make the most revenue. The aggregator distribution (iTunes, Stitcher and others) will continue to struggle, but will grow revenue from getting into partnerships with content providers at a deeper level to get connected to advertiser revenue. The other ways these aggregator platforms can grow revenue is via offering in-app purchases, audience donation/fan loyalty shares and selling merchandise and/or offering live event ticket transactions. This part is the real weakness in the industry today and will be the key to creating the most user-friendly software experiences on mobile devices and in-cars. This is going to be the last place that is able to monetize in a way that will be healthy and really propel the industry to higher levels of revenue in the future.

I believe that Apple has been the company to profit most from Podcasting. Apple did not invent podcasting, but did make it what it is today with millions of daily users accessing podcasts through very expensive and highly profitable devices. Apple can make or break this industry right now and for the foreseeable future. It is rumored that Apple Podcasting could be moving to Android and, with a move like that; it could give the podcasting industry a big audience boost. It is true that Google has not put any effort into the podcasting market, because Google considers YouTube their podcast play. Android is clearly the biggest potential growth opportunity. It has lagged without a first-party podcast experience. Although Stitcher and others have made some in-roads into Android, it has remained a missed opportunity.

I believe that in the next 12 months, the on-demand and podcasting market will be quite different than today. The shift around consumption of audio content to mobile devices and beyond the desktop computer is a significant development. The entry of players that have big budgets will create a big impact and other dominant streaming internet audio players will jump into the on-demand talk audio market soon to drive the audience and revenue even higher.

We all need to start getting used to the phrases “on-demand audio” and “on-demand talk”, and the term “Podcasts” as important industry terms, as I am hearing them more and more. The term “Podcast” and “Podcasting” are not going away and never will, but these other terms will help this industry become the financial success we all want it to become.